The watchdog created to advise the government’s bailout program warned that commercial real estate loans may cause the US’s economy take a nose dive once more. They suggested that if regulators prepare now they may be able to prevent this. This warning was meant to encourage regulators to take measures to prevent another crisis related to the banking systems.
The watchdog panel was created in October 2008 to oversee the banking system rescue that was being conducted by the Treasury. Almost $0.7 trillion of commercial real estate loans that end between 2010 and 2014 are currently ‘underwater.’ This means that they owe more for their property than the property is actually worth.
In addition to this data, the panel concluded that if the economy is still limping along and banks are restricting lending policies that the borrowers will not be able to refinance. If this happens, they stated that hundreds of banks will fail and cause further damage to the economy.
The watchdog panel unanimously agreed that this is a very serious concern that will strike the poor economy in the next few years. The small and medium-sized banks will be at the most risk for loss due to commercial real estate loans.
In the watchdog panel’s report they showed that almost 3,000 banks center their attention on commercial real estate lending. 2,115 of these banks have $100 million to $1 billion invested in these companies.
The panel recognized the fact that regulators will have to work as a team in several areas to avoid another potential economic disaster. They were asked to put a special emphasis on planning ahead.
The government may also take preventative action by lending to small banks and business or guaranteeing the small bank loans. The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility was created to lend support to giving out asset-backed securities collateralized by loans that were guaranteed by the Small Business Administration. The facility was set to expire later this year, but its life may have to be extended while letting a few banks fail.
The panel commented that, “The panel is clear that government cannot and should not keep every bank afloat…Neither should it turn a blind eye to the dangers of unnecessary bank failures and their impact on communities.”
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